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Three paths to a Nobel Prize in chemistry

Adam Sanford
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Three paths to a Nobel Prize in chemistry

Emerging Science
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Written by:
CAS Science Team
CAS Science Team

When Alfred Nobel’s will established awards for scientific breakthroughs, chemistry was listed as one of three fields to be recognized, along with physics and medicine.  Years later, the Nobel Prize is considered the highest award one can receive in these areas, which are joined by literature and peace for annual recognition. However, what does it take to win a Nobel?

Since 1901, there have been 115 Nobel Prizes awarded in chemistry, acknowledging discoveries ranging from radioactivity to sugar fermentation to quantum dots. As scientific discoveries have grown and evolved over the years, the Nobel Prize selections have also reflected how chemistry has changed and impacted the world.

Per the original direction of Alfred Nobel, committee members appointed annually by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences seek to identify, from many nominations, the discovery that has “conferred the greatest benefit on mankind.” What does this phrase mean, and what types of research are most likely to be recognized?

Categorizing chemistry breakthroughs

In anticipation of the upcoming announcement of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, we dug into the last 40 years of Nobel history and analyzed related publication data from the CAS Content CollectionTM to better understand what types of breakthroughs are most likely to be deemed Nobel-worthy.

By looking for commonalities among the discoveries and tracing how each progressed from its initial disclosure to the Nobel Prize via the published literature, we identified three distinct categories of innovation that have historically been recognized with the award, each representing a unique research path to a Nobel Prize:  

  • Foundational understanding: This category represents learnings from basic research that significantly enhance our understanding of critical aspects of the world around us. ‍
  • Tools and techniques: This category encompasses innovations that enable new ways of doing research that significantly enhance or accelerate scientific progress. ‍
  • Impactful applications: This category includes new technologies that have demonstrated widespread applications that deliver positive benefits for many people or that show high potential for such applications.

Another important finding of our analysis is that aspiring Nobel laureates must be patient. On average, 25 years elapse between publication of the seminal paper disclosing an initial discovery and that work being recognized with a Nobel Prize. Though the range of intervening years was broad, spanning 46 years on the high end to just four years as an outlier on the low end, the average did not differ significantly between the three categories.  

Looking at the awards by category on a timeline (Figure 1) shows that there have been shifts in the types of discoveries garnering the most Nobel attention. For example, in the last 10 years, we have seen greater emphasis on applications and less on foundational research. However, there is no way to know what changes we may see in the next 10 years, as the deliberations of the Nobel Committee are strictly confidential.

Figure 1: Timeline of Nobel Prize recipients by research category over the last 40 years.

        

Let’s examine more about each of these unique paths to the Nobel Prize and explore some examples to better understand their unique characteristics.

Foundational understanding

Discoveries recognized in this category are what many people typically think of when considering the Nobel Prize. They are findings that significantly enhance the scientific community’s fundamental knowledge about how the world around us functions.

Examples of past Nobel-winning research that falls into this category include:

Though some might expect that the majority of Nobel Prizes are awarded for this type of research, our analysis found that only 37.5% of chemistry prizes over the last 40 years fall into this category.

The graph in Figure 2 tracks the volume of patent and journal publications on DNA repair as an example of the typical growth trajectory of this category of research. Nobel-winning foundational discoveries consistently show a steady, nearly linear rise in attention over time. This reinforces how a key basic research discovery catalyzes a cascade of understanding, with each learning building upon the previous as the scientific community expands our overall knowledge.  

Figure 2: Volume of journal and patent publications relating to DNA repair by year. Source: CAS Content Collection.

As seen in Figure 2, these types of breakthroughs are almost exclusively published in journals rather than patent publications. This makes sense for this category, which represents basic research that does not usually have a direct commercial application.  

The timeline in Figure 1 shows that Nobel recognition for these foundational discoveries has been less common in recent years, with the last prize of this type being awarded in 2016. However, with so many key aspects of our world remaining outside our scientific understanding, and new revelations being made each year, this category remains a perennial contender for the Nobel Prize.

Some of the research areas that the CAS Science Team believes are most likely to see a Nobel laureate recognized soon include multiple aspects of chemical biology, nuclear receptors, and the gut microbiome.

Tools and techniques

Surprisingly, over the last 40 years the Nobel Prize in Chemistry has most frequently been awarded to scientists developing new research methods that have significantly enhanced or accelerated scientific progress by enabling better and more efficient research. This category accounted for a full 50% of the awards during this period.

Examples of discoveries receiving the Nobel Prize in this category in recent years include:

Figure 3 below shows the pattern of publication growth over time for super-resolved fluorescence microscopy, which is typical of this category of Nobel-winning research. Interest in these types of high-impact functional discoveries rises rapidly as these new methods and technologies are tested, quickly adopted, and improved upon in the research community. However, a characteristic plateau of publications is often seen in this category of discoveries 10 to 30 years after the initial disclosure. This appears to result from these technologies becoming a commonplace standard in their fields. They end up unmentioned or supplanted by the next generation of innovation.

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Figure 3: Volume of journal and patent publications relating to super-resolved fluorescence microscopy by year. Source: CAS Content Collection.

As Figure 3 demonstrates, discoveries in this category are also primarily published in journals, though some patent activity is often seen a decade or more after the initial discovery as the technologies become sufficiently developed to attract commercial interest.  

Revisiting our timeline in Figure 1, we see that over the last 40 years the Nobel committee has recognized these tools and techniques on a consistent basis, which means we will likely continue to see Nobel winners in this category. Other impactful tools and techniques that the CAS Science Team believes could be in consideration for future Nobel Prize recognition include DNA synthesis, dendritic catalysis, AlphaFold, and atom-transfer radical polymerization.

Impactful applications

Interestingly, the Nobel committee has rarely over the past 40 years recognized discoveries based on the widespread or far-reaching positive impact. While this category has only received five Nobel Prizes in this period, accounting for only 12.5% of awards, these discoveries are likely the most well-known by the public.

Examples of discoveries receiving the Nobel Prize in this category in recent years include:

As Figure 4 shows, one of the most unique features of this category of research is the prevalence of patent publications. These technologies often demonstrate a nearly exponential and sustained rise led by commercial interest, represented by a high volume of patent filings. Generally, patent publications make up more than 50% of publications for topics in this category.  

Figure 4: Volume of journal and patent publications relating to lithium-ion batteries by year. Source: CAS Content Collection.

Revisiting our timeline in Figure 1 shows that two of the five Nobel Prizes awarded in this category have occurred in the past 10 years, a drastic increase in frequency relative to historic norms. Whether this is a trend toward increased recognition of applications, or just a recent anomaly is yet to be seen. However, if more application-focused Nobel Prizes are on the horizon, the CAS Science Team has identified a few candidates including organic light-emitting diodes, metal organic frameworks, and solar cells.

Who will win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for 2024?

On October 9, 2024, we will learn who has earned the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for 2024. As is true each year, with so many exciting advances being made across fields, there is no shortage of worthy candidates. Even with an analytical approach, it is nearly impossible to predict future Nobel winners from among such a large pool of possibilities. However, understanding the types of discoveries being recognized provides insight to how the Nobel Committee has interpreted this challenge over time. No matter what category of research is recognized this year, the annual announcement is sure to capture the imagination of scientists around the world and inspire us all with the far reaching “benefits” and potential of each new scientific discovery.

© Nobel Prize Outreach. Photo: Hugh Fox

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